Dear Sir Machiavelli, I am writing to you for an opinion and advice on the current international political situation that afflicts Italy and the whole of Europe regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, about which you will have learned from the media.
In place of our rulers, how would you act?
Dear Italian, as you know I have expressed my political thoughts in a work entitled “The Prince” addressed precisely to those who have the fate of a country in their hands. As your compatriot and for the love I bring Italy to my homeland, I feel compelled to answer this question in more detail, even though I have abandoned public activity for many years.
In my opinion, your rulers should act to ensure Italy’s well-being, stability and security. Their work should be independent of implications extraneous to politics, that is, they should stick to the “actual truth” of things. I will try to make you understand this actual truth.
In your case, the Ukraine-Russia war hides a much wider political / economic conflict, as you may well have understood. I would like to focus your attention on a video published on youtube a few years ago and precisely in 2015, one year after the start of the conflict in the Donbass. The video (here the full version) refers to a conference at the Chicago Council of Global Affairs on the occasion of the presentation of the latest book by George Friedman, US political scientist (Europe – Destined for Conflict?).
Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Stratford’s founder and CEO present a discussion on the emerging crisis in Europe (2015).
Friedman explicitly states what you have always known deep down. The USA feels like an empire, it acts like an empire: “We control all the seas in the world. Even the British empire didn’t succeed. We don’t have a relationship with Europe, we have a relationship with single European states. No need to conquer is enough to destabilize and control. We support rival powers to destroy each other. We did it with Iran and Iraq. Wars are inevitable. Is it possible that Europeans do not understand this? We fear only one thing that Russia and Germany (Europe) will establish stable relations .” The political scientist then explains quite clearly what the US policy is in relation to Russia and Europe and that is to build a sanitary cordon between the Baltic and the Black Sea (inter maria) that separates the two political entities. From his reasoning, it is clear that the main factor that worries the United States is a strong alliance between Russia and Germany (read Europe of which Germany is the economic engine). Friedman also traces a relationship between past, present and future by stating that “World War I and II as well as the Cold War were born out of a fear for the United States of this strong alliance between Germany and Russia as such an alliance. was the only one who could threaten American imperialism”.
And therefore, the first question we must ask ourselves is why today the relationship of economic exchange and cooperation between Russia – Germany / the European Union according to the Friedman analysis would still worry the US so much to point of shaking the specter of a third world war? The answer is found in the image that I show you below from the Statista website. This is the geographic distribution of some of the earth’s major natural resources in terms of economic value expressed in trillions of dollars.
Value of natural resources and their distribution from the Statista website. Pro sanctions (blue) and counter sanctions (red) to Russia
As you can see, Russia is in the first place with a value in natural resources of around 75 trillion dollars. The US is very far behind with 45 trillion dollars and Saudi Arabia with 34.4. The Russian Federation is among the world’s leading extractors and exporters of raw materials. In particular, according to BP data for 2015, Russia is the second largest producer of gas in the world, the third of crude oil, the sixth of coal. Finally, the vastness of the territory places it in first place in the world also for timber reserves (over 20% of the world’s forests are present on Russian territory). It also has the largest reserves of iron in the world (second only to Australia), the second of PGM (Platinum group metals), thirds of gold and fourths of Nickel, potentially large amount of rare earth materials (REE are critical in the “green” energy production but also in the defence sector). Military systems are reliant on rare earth, from high strength magnets, to laser guided munitions. Firstly, neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are considered to be the smallest, lightest, and most powerfull magnets currently known to science. These magnets are used in products ranging from computer disk drives, hybrid/electric motors and wind turbines. All modern military equipment is highly dependent on computer systems, which contain hard-drive’s made from neodymium and other rare earth magnet material. The applications for defense systems get more technological from here. The fin actuators for guided missiles and munitions, are powered by motors that use NeFeB magnets. The same motors are used for unmanned aircraft, as well as many other small electric vehicles, tomahawk missiles and other smart bombs, emerging rail gun technology. Europium, ytterbium, and Terbium are used in optical systems as a glass ‘doping agent’ for lasers, and other systems. These products are essential for night vision, heads up displays in fighter jets, laser systems such as guided weapons and laser targeting systems, and fiber optic cables. SONAR and RADAR systems, satellite communications also rely on rare earths. Even nuclear threat detection systems use lanthanum to detect gamma radiation.
Russia produced 2,700 Metric Tons of rare earths in 2020 but its reserves are estimated at 12 million MT on the opposite the USA reserves are only 1.5 million MT. The Russian government recently announced plans to invest US$1.5 billion in order to compete with China in the rare earths market.
Natural resources are the fuel of every economy and where they meet technical skills they produce well-being and development. Close cooperation between Russia which possesses huge quantities of these resources and Europe which possesses technologies would undermine the dominance of the US which already sees a powerful enemy in China and other emerging countries. It is quite clear that Europe (Germany) is a formidable competitor for anyone if it has cheap energy and raw materials (i.e. natural gas, rare earths reserve).
Rare earth reserves by country (million metric tonnes). Pro sanctions (blue) and counter sanctions (red) to Russia
To help you better understand the situation in the previous both graphs I have marked the bars in red to indicate Russia and the countries that have not applied economic sanctions and in blue the USA and the countries that have applied them. It can be seen that the countries that have applied them belong to NATO or are allies such as Australia. On the contrary, those that have not applied them are three countries of the emerging BRICS economies (China, India, Brazil) and Vietnam, two historical enemies of the USA (Iran and Venezuela) and Iraq which suffered a war from the USA. It is evident from these graphs that the world of tomorrow will not be able to follow the colonialist and neo-colonialist logics that have characterized the politics of the West (USA and Europe). The world economy is changing and there is a precise link between the ongoing war and the end of the dollar as the reference currency for the payment of resources. Russia and China are accelerating the de-dollarization process, which will have a fundamental impact on US dollar’s reserve currency status (see the article Armageddon of US dollar approaching).
Continuing our reasoning, EU imports from Russia are a fundamental resource for the Old Continent. In absolute terms, Moscow ranks third in the ranking of non-EU countries from which the EU imports the most. In 2021, the countries of the Union imported goods from the Russian Federation for € 158.5 billion, equal to 7.9% of total imports from non-EU countries. Only in 2019 Germany imported goods (essentially raw materials) from Russia for 28 billion dollars and Italy for 15 billion. China is the first importer from Russia for over 57 billion dollars with a progressive increase over time (here you can find some statistics).
You should now better understand Friedman’s discourse on the Europe (Germany) / Russia ties which, if allied or at least on good terms, are perceived as a threat by the US. I probably tell you something familiar reminding her that NATO was also created to avoid this possibility and with the aim of “keeping the Soviets out, the Americans in, and the Germans down“. NATO’s task is not to defend you from external attacks, but to guarantee the stability of this system and to defend it by any means whatsoever from any economic danger. NATO is essentially an effective instrument of US control over a hegemonic area of its competence, with its allies as “subordinate partners”, which becomes dangerous for peace where American foreign policy moves following “winds of war”. Here it makes little sense to discuss the current need for an organism that originates from the idea of a “Western society” as opposed to an “Eastern system” that has no longer existed since 1991 with the collapse of the USSR. You Italians should first of all refuse to be trapped in this stereotype which justifies Friedman’s aim of closing Russia out of Europe. This by now anachronistic subdivision paralyzes Europe in relations with the rest of the world, enslaving it only to American interests. This was immediately seen, just a month after the beginning of the current conflict, with the agreement of last March 25 that provides for the US to increase supplies to Europe to 50 billion cubic meters until 2030, thus replacing gas. Russian with the US LNG. A real bargain for America minus for Europe as the cost of US LNG is 40% higher than Russian gas. Obviously this will have a severe impact on your economy in the coming years by reducing your production capacity.
In my opinion, you should think in such a way as to tend to your own interests which may even differ from those of the USA. Today, your objective and that of Europe should be to establish strong economic and political relations with Russia for the possibility of guaranteeing you the necessary resources for the future. On the other hand, Russia is obviously tending towards Asia which draws and will draw more and more resources and therefore if cornered, Russians will cut the bridges with Europe that they do not need. The hope would be that an internal crisis in the USA would oblige them to disinterest in Europe, letting it follow its natural vocation that leads it to go East for the reasons I have explained but also for a historical and cultural affinity.
To answer your question, how would I behave in the place of your rulers? Those in a condition of weakness should act as always, with cunning and foresight, planning the real objectives that should be in the interest of Italy and Europe and not of the USA or NATO. Specifically, I believe that you must do exactly the opposite of what Friedman hoped and prophesied about Europe-Russia relations, which is to create a totally demilitarized and neutral zone between Europe and Russia and encourage every effort that guarantees economic cooperation between the two sides. For example, a very simple way to go in this direction would be a declaration by your foreign minister that Italy would not accept Ukraine’s entry into NATO. In fact, this entry should have the green light from all its member countries, including ours, and this veto would be enough to limit US / NATO interference in European politics and relations with Russia. Will your rulers have the courage to disobey the US? You should first of all ask yourself if your rulers have those characteristics of determination, intelligence, ability to evaluate, readiness to intervene, rationality and energy to act that I hoped to be present in a good ruler. The US will try to prevent this but if you stay united they will not be able to oppose it. Today they push you into conflict, pretend to go along with them but row against them, aim to heal conflicts and not sharpen them, use the weapons of diplomacy. Don’t let yourself be used as their pawns. Friedman’s comparison that sees the US as a new Roman empire should remind you that one of the key principles of that political entity to dominate the world was precisely the “divide et impera“. Therefore, your major strength as Europe is precisely unity in pursuing your interests of lasting peace through stable diplomatic relations with Russia, while at the same time cultivating good relations with the US to which you are strongly attached.
Finally, I would like to make a historical consideration on the role that both these countries had in the fight against Nazism in Europe. If the USA with its 220,000 casualties but above all with economic aid has been important, without the sacrifice of 12 million Soviet soldiers (of all the former republics of the old USSR) that war perhaps would never have been won. As Europe, we owe our freedom to the sacrifice of that generation. This memory of the fallen of both these nations should push us to bridge the divisions between them rather than deepen them. Besides the analysis of modern things, you also learn the lesson of the ancient ones to extricate yourself in this delicate situation.
Your Ser Niccolò Machiavelli